DHL Analytics Report

DHL Analytics Report

The last few seasons once we have been 25-30 games in I take a look at the standings and some stats to pick out some teams that have been lucky and some that have been unlucky. Most of this is based on the PDO stat. PDO is save percentage and shooting percentage added together. It is considered the luck stat. The higher it is the luckier you are. I will also discuss some shot/goal differentials and have some roster analysis as well.
The master spreadsheet of stats is just below followed by the analysis.

Top 5 PDO Teams

#1 Toronto

Seems that Alex is not only lucky at winning the draft lottery. His Toronto Maple Leafs have been on a huge shooting % bender to start the DHL season, shooting 12.8%. This is a number that will surely regress as the season moves on. To put it in perspective just how high that is, no team has had a shooting % above 10.5% in the last three seasons. This foolishly high sh% is the major reason why Toronto is our PDO leader at the moment with a 1043.

Now, I sure Alex would argue that the offensive talent he has amassed on his team is the reason for the high conversion rate and not just pure luck. If that were his argument he may have a point. This our first season experiencing peak McDavid in the DHL, and for Toronto’s opponents it is a scary experience. McDavid is leading league scoring by 15 points and we are only 32 games into the season. (PS. who had Phillip Danault as 2nd in scoring) It would not be silly to suggest that McDavid will be a percentage driver as a sim player. His speed and passing ratings surely give his whole unit a boost, but I think we will see Toronto’s team sh% settle in around 10-11% before the season ends.

When the Regression happens Alex better hope his team picks up the slack in the shots department, because the Leafs are somehow a bottom 5 team in shot differential. Closer to the likes of Calgary, Detroit and Winnipeg, than the Washington’s, Philly’s, and Vancouver’s of the DHL.

#2 Washington

Every once and a while when doing these I run into a fairly hi PDO that makes pretty good logical sense, and this year the Caps are that team. Where Toronto’s high PDO is driven mostly by their sh%, Washington’s is driven by Holtby. Holtby is the top rated goalie in the DHL this season, and plays behind a solid defense. So, I think we can expect him to keep dominating and leading the league in Shutouts, Sv%, and GAA. He already has 8 Shutouts this season! In a goalie poor league this year I’m sure most of us are jealous.

Given the offensive talent on the Caps, Backstrom, Simmonds, and Atkinson, for example, it is not unreasonable to think they will keep up their 9.5% conversion rate for the season. Every season we see teams of this talent level shoot in the 9-10% range.

Every couple of seasons we will see one or two teams fining the year with a PDO over 1020. I think the Caps will be a lock to be at that level at year end. This high PDO, combined with the fact that Washington leads the league in shot differential by a country mile at +214, should make them the team to beat in the East this season.

#3 Carolina

I have to give Mayo credit, Carolina is not usually the sexiest looking team in the DHL (In terms of talent not looks, this isn’t a Jonathan article ), but the fuckers always seem to win a bunch of games. There was even a year where Mayo tried to tank and he still almost made the playoffs.

Last season was a down season for Carey Price, but Andrew sucked it up and stuck with his long-time stud goalie rather than selling low. It may have cost him a playoff berth last season, but his patients is paying off this season now that Price is back to being a top 2-3 goalie in the league. Price is sporting a .925 sv% and I don’t see that slipping as the rest of the season plays out.

Where I can see some regression is on the shooting side of things. Outside of Max Pac there are not a lot of big guns on this roster. That is not to say this is not a good team. The Canes roster is solid from top to bottom and I fully expect them to be in the upper half of the East this season. Based on the talent on paper though, I expect to see this I see the shooting % dropping back to an 8-9% range.

Carolina is dead even with shot +/-, but stellar goaltending should keep them as one of the major players in the East this season even if they are converting on less shots as the season wears on.

#4 Ottawa

For too many years this was a team with a ton of talented players and average to poor goaltending. It was frustrating to watch from the outside. Ben had drafted well and built a cheap, young, exciting team, but was happy to roll out Halak, or Steve Mason, or Markstrom, or Greiss, or…… well you get the idea. This resulted in many sad sac seasons for the Ottawa DHL franchise.

When Sully took over the team he made a great move by acquiring Rinne. Boy is that move paying dividends this season. Rinne is 2nd to Holtby in SV% and is the major driver of the Sens high PDO. The teams Sh% is high at 9.5% but not unreasonable. Ottawa’s major problem has been the fact they are consistently being outshot and have had some poor luck in one goal games.

Even with the high PDO this team still seems to be under preforming when I look at the talent they have on paper. Maybe we will see a roster shake up if they don’t soon climb into a playoff spot.

#5 New Jersey

Like Ottawa, New Jersey spent a lot of years fucking around with bad goalies. Also following Ottawa’s lead, Saif addressed that need and brought in a veteran stud goalie in Devan Dubnyk. I thought that Saif over paid a bit for Dubnyk at the time, but it has been a stellar move for the Devils and Dubnyk has been at the top of the league for Sv%. With a top goalie we will not likely see that save % dip too much over the rest of the season.

As a bit of a side note, every time I see Dubnyk dominating the DHL I still think back to when Jonny traded Cody Hodgson to Arpan for Dubnyk and the whole league went nuts. I think it almost got TCed. Funny looking back now how things change.

On the shooting side of things New Jersey is converting on 9.5%of their shots. This is above average, but not sky high by any means. This could dip a little bit as the season rolls on, but with some top offensive players like Draisaitl, Forsberg, Kadri, Stall, and Radulov, it makes sense that Saif would have good shooting luck. We should get used to seeing NJ at or near the top of the East for the season.

Other Interesting Teams

Columbus

AKA Goalie controversyville. Tank cop Adrian has been watching Kris like a hawk for the last two seasons. Did his shitty 74OV goalie play more games than his shitty 76OV goalie? Kris better hope not or the tank cop and his tank swat team will be bursting down doors to take Kris to tank jail. Then he will really have something to sook about.

In all seriousness, it seems like Kris’ team has just been super unlucky this season. CBJ has actually out shot the competition so far this season, and a shooting % of 8.8 is pretty good. The major issue for the Blue Jakets is that both goalies have been scary bad. Kris took some major steps towards competing this season so it is unfortunate to see bad goalie luck piss that away. I think by the end of the season we will see Allen and Smith improve, but it may be too late for Kris to make a playoff appearance.

LA

Ok, so who had LA leading the West 20 games into the season? Not even the most optimistic of us would have made that prediction. The sim can be cruel sometimes. 71OV Bernier has been on fire this season, while the 74-76OV goalies in CBJ have been a dumpster fire. LA has been in free fall for the past 10 or so games now and I think Adrian will be outside the playoffs by the end of the season, but it was quite a goalie run to start the season and frustrate the Western conference.

Edmonton

Cam Talbot is a top 5 rated goalie this year, but sure has not been preforming like one. Edmonton has been out playing most teams with a +41 shot differential, and Baba Booey team has been converting on their chances with a 9.6 Sh %. The problem is a team Sv% of just .897, one of the worst in the league. Once the goalie luck turns around I think we will see Edmonton back near the top of the standings where they belong.

Buffalo

Given the talent level of Stefan’s roster I would say this team has been super lucky in the first part of the season. This team is getting killed on the shot clock with a -202 shot differential, but has been staying a float in the standings with some pretty solid goaltending from veteran tandem of Luongo and Elliott. With only 4 players that are 70+ OV it would be hard to see this team finishing the season with the 8.8 SV%, but there some nice young players starting to emerge from the Buffalo garbage pile. Hopefully we see the Sabers back in contention soon.

That’s it from me. What do you guys think. Has your team been lucky or unlucky to start the season. Do you agree with my assessment of the teams above? Lets hear the comments.

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