Dynasty Hockey League

DHL Analytics – Season 28

It has been a few seasons/years, but in the past once we have been 25-30 games in, I look at the standings/stats and pick out some teams that have been lucky so far in the season.

Most of analysis is based on the PDO stat. PDO is save percentage and shooting percentage added together. It is considered the luck stat. The higher it is the luckier you are. I will also discuss some shot/goal differentials and have some roster analysis as well.

For best viewing experience see forum post: http://www.dynastyhockey.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=7480&p=39917#p39917

I’m too lazy to format all the pics and attachments here

The master spreadsheet of stats is just below followed by the analysis

Colorado

Is Coloradam the owner of the luckiest team in the DHL? That is what the stats say. Now Adam, for anyone who knows him, is always complaining about how lucky everyone else is, but he has been awfully quiet since his team has started rolling this season. Adam has a theory that to be successful in the DHL you have to make your team worse. He often points at teams like my Philadelphia Flyers this year and whines that “they are in a playoff spot with that shitty team? Wish I was that lucky” well it looks like this season he might have found some of that luck.

Colorado is leading the league in shooting %. They are scoring on 11.8% of their shots as a team. The main drivers of that are Mark stone at 17.6%, Malkin at 19.3%, and perennial sniper Craig Smith with 12 goals on 54 shots for a 22.2% conversion rate.

Indeed, one of these things just doesn’t belong here and that thing is Craig Smith. We are all used to seeing high skill players like Malkin and Stone drive shooting percentages and put up big numbers, but I don’t see a guy like Craig smith shooting at that rate for the whole season. It is guys like Smith and other depth players that I see taking a dip as the season progresses for Colorado.

On the save percentage side of PDO Colorado sits comfortably inside the top 10 in the league at .919 as a team. Adam boasts one of the top rated goalies in the league with 82OV Vasilevskiy, so I think it is fair to expect this to hold or maybe even improve as the year progresses.

So, is Colorado actually the luckiest team in the league? Probably not. Colorado is 6th in the league with a shot differential of + 103. They have one of the best 1-2-3 Centre punches in the league with Scheifele – Malkin – Johansen; Strong wingers like Stone, Dadonov, Marchessault, and Gallagher; One of the most well rounded 1 through 6 Defenses in the league and a top goalie. Even if the shooting does regress a bit they are still a really good team and should still end up at the top end of the league at the end of the year.

Toronto

Fucking Alex eh? Toronto wins two draft lotteries in a row and now he’s lucky again every year posting one of the highest PDO’s in the DHL. As Coloradam would say “he’s soooo lucky”. Well if he can’t get lucky with draft lotteries and a half price Marner salary he might as well get lucky on the PDO train. Or is it all luck? Let’s dive in and take a look.

Toronto is shooting 11% as a team so far this season that is food for 4th best in the league. 11% is high, but not unheard of. Teams finish in that range all the time if they have top end talent. So, lets take a look to see who is driving these high numbers. Tops on the team for shooting percentage will surprise no one. That title goes to Auston Matthews. In between drunken embarrassments this summer captain underpants must have also works on his shot because he is shooting a foolishly high 22.4% this season. Next on the list at 20.6% is Zack Parise, who I was a bit surprised to see here, but after looking at his 77OV and 76SC ratings I will admit it is plausible. I think the biggest surprise is that we don’t see McDavid or his line mates as the big drivers of shooting percentage. McJeasus is shooting just 11.7% so far this season. That aint bad but those are mere mortal numbers. So, yeah Matthews and Parise might come back to earth as the season moves along, but others have room to increase SH % on this team. It is stacked with talent and should maintain a high Sh% as the years moves along.

On the goaltending side, Toronto also has the 4th best team Sv% in the league at .924. Freddy Andersen is one of the better rated goalies in the league at 81OV so his .922 SV% is right around what you would expect, but I can’t see backup goalie Anders Nilsson staying at .956 for the year.

So, can we call this a lucky team? Maybe a bit, but there are very few players I can point to and say they are out preforming expectations based on reputation and ratings. Turns out that when Alex wasn’t obsessing over Adrian and trying to cheat on player contracts this off season he was putting together a pretty good sim hockey team. Even percentages dip a bit as the season goes on this team is outplaying opponents and should be contender for the cup again this year.

Columbus

Before getting into this I just wanted to let everyone know that Kris is up for making a trade. I know its been a whole week since he posted a trade block but I’m pretty sure he is still DTT (Down To Trade). Just in case you were wondering.

Now that we got that out of the way, let’s look at this team. Kris, was a guy who was thinking about being a seller this offseason, he has an older team and was thinking about a retool. Well he couldn’t get what he was looking for when selling, so he just decided to fuck everyone up this year and lead the league in points.

Columbus is 5th in the league for shooting percentage scoring on 10.7% of their shots. Digging in further it is the usual suspects leading the way and driving that number up. Crosby is at 20.9% and Patrick Kane is at 15%. Again, not sure I can call this lucky. This is a pretty offensively skilled team so a higher than average shooting percentage should be expected. Not sure Andrew Shaw will finish the year at a point per game or if Kyle Palmieri is going to keep shooting 14%, but hey, crazier things have happened in DHL.

This team strength so far this season has been in net. Columbus has the second best team save percentage in the league at .927. Kris has really good starter with Bobrovsky who is second in the league with a .932 save percentage (Second to Carter Hutton?!?!? OK, didn’t expect that). He is also taking advantage of having probably the best back up in the league with Matt Murray (Also, on the trade block. You know, if you haven’t been paying attention). Murray is getting lots of starts and keeping Bob fresh and it is showing with his stellar play. This team save percentage might dip a bit, but it wouldn’t be shocking if it stays this high all season.

Kris has an excellent veteran team here. I don’t think his record is all percentage driven. Even with some regression he should stay a top contender. This is not a team I would want to meat in the playoffs this season.

Montreal

Looking at this roster I would expect this team to have a higher PDO, but with the best rated goalie in the league I would think that it would be mostly save percentage driven. I was a little surprised to see that this team is in the top 5 PDO teams mostly because it leads the league in shooting % scoring on 11.5% of their shots. There some guys on this team that have outrageous shooting percentages. Dryden Hunt is just falling into goals shooting 37.5%. Kuznetsov must be hammering the rails before games because he is scoring on 1 of every four shots at a 24%. ROR is shooting 23%, that almost as high as his blood alcohol content when he goes out for a rip to timmies with the boys in the summer.

Now, this team is offensively talented (and maybe a bit problematic when it comes to substance abuse?), but these numbers are not likely to stay this good. I think as the season moves along Montreal will settle into a shooting percentage around 10-11%.

On the goaltending side Bishop is what we would all expect. He is 3rd in the league with a .930 save percentage. So, how is the team save percentage only at .914? Well it is because Laurent Brossoitt has been absolute horse shit. His save percentage is .885 and I assume that is mostly playing the worst teams in the league. Montreal is 15-4-1 with Bishop and 4-6-1 when he’s not playing. Woof! I can’t see that keeping up. This is somewhere that will likely improve for the Habs as the SH% drops. I think either Trevor will play the back up less or look to upgrade as the season moves on.

Minny

It is nice to see Chris having some good fortune in the DHL this season. I think most of us felt that he had a really good team last season and were surprised to see him miss the playoffs. That playoff miss ultimately landed him the epic fail award for season 27, but looking at his team stats it seems he was mostly let down by under-performing goaltending, sporting a team save percentage below .910 last season even though he had both Carey Price and Marc-Andre Fleury.

This year has been a different story when it comes to goaltending in Minny. Carey Price has been very good, sporting a save percentage of .926, and backup Corey Crawford has been even better in his two starts at .956. That puts Minny third in the league with a team save percentage of .926. Quite the turn around from the disaster in the crease last year. With one of the top starters in the league, and a solid backup I have no reason to think that the save percentage will fall as the year progresses. I expect this strong goaltending to continue.

On the shooting percentage side Minny has a few skaters that stick out. One that is laughably high is Auston Watson at 20.8%. He has 10 goals already. With only a 64SC rating I can’t see that continuing. Rocco Grimaldi has 4 goals on just 20 shots this season for a 20% Sh% and he has 53SC. These will obviously straighten out as the season moves along, but all the bug guns like Kopitar, Stamkos, Panarin have pretty normal percentages. A team 9.4% shooting is a sustainable number given the scoring talent on the team and I don’t see it changing that much.

Overall

In the big picture these teams are seeing a bit of luck go their way so far, but when we dig in they are all well built teams. So, we can’t say their success so far this season is all luck based. Tune in next weekend when I do a part 2 of this looking at some of the lowest PDO teams and some other interesting ones from the PDO chart.

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