Due to Regress
- Updated: March 26, 2016
The last few seasons once we have been 20-25 games in I take a look at the standings and some stats to pick out some teams that have been lucky and some that have been unlucky. Most of this is based on the PDO stat. PDO is save percentage and shooting percentage added together. I will discuss some shot differential and have some roster analysis as well. At the bottom of the article is a spreadsheet of some of the stats I will be using.
LA
The defending champs have been on a roll to start the season. Adrian put together another solid team for this season, but the Kings may be playing a bit over their heads over their first 20 teams. The Kings lead the league in points, but also have the highest PDO in the league at 1032. It is rare for a team to finish the year with a PDO over 1020, and the teams that do usually have the combination of elite goaltending and elite scorers. When looking at LA, I can see the elite forward talent to support their high shooting % of 9.4%. Guys like Kopitar, Hartnell, and Datsyuk will certainly drive sh% numbers up. Where I see some major regression coming is with the save %. Pekka Rinne has some pretty average ratings this season. He is 78 OV and has an 82 for the major goalie ratings. Those ratings don’t support his sky high .938 save %. The good news for Adrian is his team has been out playing opponents, outshooting the other team on most nights. Even with Rinne coming back to earth as the season rolls on, the Kings should stick as a top 4 team in the west by out playing their opposition.
Vancouver
Stickboy’s team has also had a hot start, and like Adrian’s team it is heavily driven by their high PDO of 1030. The Canucks are second only to the Kings in PDO, and as mentioned above a 1020+ PDO has proven to be very hard to maintain over a full season. One thing that Vancouver does have, that LA is lacking is an elite goalie. Cory Schneider is a top goalie in the DHL, so it comes as no surprize that he is sporting a sparkling .930 save %. The area that is due to regress on this team is the sky high shooting % of 10%. Don’t get me wrong, even with some key losses in UFA, Vancouver still has some excellent offensive players. Steen, Gaudreau, JVR, and Gallagher are all players that will keep Stickboy’s shooting % above average, but I can’t see it being 10+% for a whole season. The good news for Stickboy, like Adrain’s team, he is outshooting opponents. So, even if his PDO does drop into the 1015-1020 range he should still be among the top teams in the west.
Winnipeg
Yeo’s team has had an excellent start and currently sits in 4th in the East and normally a PDO of 1010 would not be a huge concern. DHL teams regularly finish the season with a 1010+ PDO. The concerning part for Yeo is that he doesn’t seem to have the horses to back it up. The Jets are an average team across the board on paper. Getzlaf is the only player on the team that would be considered elite. In fact, Getzlaf is the only skater on the team who is 75+ OV. Halak also seems to playing above his head to start the season. A 76 OV goalie rarely finishes the season with a save % over .920. Halak’s .929% is due to fall as the season moves on. The biggest concern for Yeo is that his Jets are being handily outshot in most games. The Jets are a bottom five team in the DHL with a -59 shot differential. If Halak drops off, and the team does not improve play in front of him, Yeo’s team will have a hard time staying among the top 8 in the East.
Minny
Minny improved a lot over the off-season. Chris certainly put together a solid team here, and like Winnipeg a 1009 PDO on it’s own is not a cause for concern. Also like Winnipeg, the concerning stat for Minny is the -53 shot differential. It will be hard to hold onto a playoff spot in the ultra competitive west if you get consistently outshot. When looking at the Wild roster an 8.4% shooting percentage does not seem that out of place. Hoffman and Duchene are two of the top scorers in the DHL, but we may see some shooting regression with no solid depth finishers on the Wild. In the end though, we should see the shooting percentage hold around the 8% mark. Now, the interesting area for Minny is the goaltending. As a team, Minny’s save percentage is .925, which is only slightly above average. The team #’s are only brought down by Minny’s backups though. Reimer and Lack have an .895 and .733 save % respectively. Mrazek has been stellar so far with a .937 S% , and that is due to regress as the season rolls on as is low endurance rating begins to hinder his performance. Then again, if Reimer can improve his play and Chris is able to work him in against weaker teams the team save percentage may stay above average. It will be interesting to see if Minny can hold on to a playoff spot once San Jose and St. Louis wake up and start climbing the standings. It is hard to judge if the current percentages will hold up.
Columbus
Tyler’s team has had a solid start to the season and are currently only one point out a playoff spot. That may give him some hope that he could sneak into that 8th spot, but the BJs are getting caved in when it comes to shot differential. -107 through 20 games is awful and they will not stay competitive long if this continues. As far as PDO goes, 1008 is not a crazy number, but if you look at the roster there seems little hope that the 8.5% shooting is sustainable. Ryan Spooner is the only player on the team with a SC rating of 70 or above. When looking at the goaltending, Jake Allen has just average ratings, so it is unlikely he will continue his hot start and .923 S%. It looks like this solid start will only hurt Tyler’s draft lotto chances come the end of the year.
I will post “Due to Improve” tomorrow. Full league stats posted below.
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