Dynasty Hockey League

Quarter Season Ramblings

It has been kinda dead around here the last few weeks since the season started. Lets get some discussion going.

The last few seasons once we have been 20-25 games in I take a look at the standings and some stats to pick out some teams that have been lucky and some that have been unlucky. Most of this is based on the PDO stat. PDO is save percentage and shooting percentage added together. I will discuss some shot differential and have some roster analysis as well. Below is a spreadsheet of some of the stats I will be using.

PDO.png
PDO.png (34.58 KiB) Viewed 19 times

From doing this the last few seasons we know that it is rare for a team to finish the season with a PDO over 1020. Most contending teams will be between 1000 and 1015. As we can see on the above chart, there are currently four teams that are above 1020. We can also pick out a few teams with pretty solid rosters that have a PDO under 1000.

Let’s look at the teams that the percentages have been very kind too so far first.

Colorado

Adam had a busy few months bring this team back to respectability. Last season he picked up Dubnyk for a second round pick and that is looking like a very smart move now. Dubnyk has been the best goalie in the league so far. He has been sporting a .943 save percentage and already has six shutouts! Outside of the crease Adam added Brassard, Jordon Staal, Hossa, and Brandon Saad this offseason. These additions have been paying off on the score board as well. Yes, this team is looks to be a real contender. The only problem is the team’s current percentages are unsustainable. The Aves currently lead the league in both shooting percentage and save percentage and are sporting a PDO of 1045. Look for Adam’s team to slowly come back to earth over the rest of the season, but still be a solid playoff team with a top rated goalie. I’m guessing we see Colorado finish in the 4-7 range in the west this season.

Carolina

The raining cup champs have picked up right where they left off. The Canes have been dominating the east so far. Andrew’s team has been consistently outshooting and outscoring opponents so far this season thanks to a break out start from Nick Bjugstad, and stellar play from veteran addition Zach Parise. It also helps to have the best rated goalie in the league in Carey Price. Carolina’s PDO is a bit high, currently sitting at 1026, but with a goalie rated as high as Price, Andrew’s team will like finish the season with a higher than average PDO, but look to see that shooting percentage take a bit of a dip. Even with a bit of regression I think we will see Carolina finish as a top three team in the East.

New Jersey

No team in the DHL has improved more from last season than New Jersey. The Devils have some steller young players that are finally starting to contribute after years and years of tanking. Saif has also made some good moves in the off season. He picked up veteran center Patrick Marleau in UFA. He grabbed Martin St. Louis and Chris Kunitz off waivers and Andrew Hammond had an excellent rerate for him. New Jersey has deffanality been a feel good story so far this season, going from the league punching bag to second in the East. Looking at the numbers there is some cause for concern though. The Devils have the second highest PDO in the league. Even with the improved roster I can’t see Saif’s team keeping a 9%+ shooting percentage. It will also be interesting to see if Hammond can keep up his excellent play as the long season wears on. Hammond has top goalie ratings but dangerously low endurance a durability. Saif looks to be a sure bet for playoffs in the east at the moment, but an injury to Hammond or a dip in his play as he gets tired could get this team in trouble. With less than elite fire power up front we should also see a dip in shooting percentage. My guess is New Jersey will finish between 7-9 in the East this year.

St. Louis

For as long as I can remember St.Lous has been a top five team in the DHL on paper. This season is no different. With Ovechkin, Couture, Toews, and Letang this team has some of the best in the league at their position. John also has a top goalie in Rask. Of all the team’s with 1020+ PDO raings this is the team I can see sustaining that number all year long. The team save % of .940 is going to go down, but with all the firepower this team boosts I could see an improvement in shooting percentage into the 9-10% area. I don’t think we will see St.Louis outside the top three in the West this season. Maybe this will be the year for John.

Now, let’s take a look at some teams that have been a bit unlucky this season.

San Jose

The Sharks have been seriously underperforming so far this season. Commish John’s team is currently on the outside looking in at the West playoffs. Prior to this season I’m sure most would have pegged San Jose as a top team in the league once again. Much to the surprise of everyone in the league, John’s team has been struggling to produce wins. I think most of that can be attributed to awful goaltending. Varlamov has pretty solid starter’s ratings, but he has been god awful to start the season. His save percentage is well below average at .901. I have a feeling that Varly will turn things around in the near future and we will see the Sharks in the top half of the West playoff picture by the time the season is done. This team is just too good on paper to be this bad in the standings. My prediction is that the Sharks right the wagon soon and finish in the 3-6 Range in the west this season.

Calgary

Rui’s team has been in free fall as of late after a solid first few games to start the season. Calgary has tumbled all the way out of a playoff spot. The good news for Rui is that the stats suggest this team has been a victim of bad luck, but upon further inspection of this roster, a low shooting percentage shouldn’t be all that surprising. The Flames have only one forward with scoring in the 70’s. Steve Bernier 70 SC as your top scorer is not a recipe for success in this league. Yes, Calgary has a good goalie in Moncton Wild Cat’s alum Corey Crawford, but they are already sporting an above average save percentage. The real test will be if this team can score by committee, because right now it is lacking a sniper that can score in bunches. I see Calgary finishing up the season in the 8-11 range in the west.

Pittsburgh

Justin is another GM that made some major upgrades this off season. This team is stacked on paper. He has tons of fire power up front with Pavelski, Sedin, Vrbara, Nic Backstrom, Simmonds, and Kessel up front. Justin also boasts arguably the league’s best defense with Dougie Hamilton, Dan Girardi, John Klingberg, and Anton Stralman leading the way. With this kind of lineup Pitt’s current shooting % of 9.5% should be sustainable. The only question mark going into the season was in goal. Would 78 overall Halak be good enough for a contender? So far, the answer has been no. Halak has been one of the worst starters in the league with a rotten .892 save percentage. The good part for Justin is that even with his rotten goaltending he is holding down a playoff spot. If Halak can pick up his game and put up just average numbers for the rest of the season we should see Justin move up the standings and into the top 4 in the East.

Winnipeg

The Jets have been extra shitty to start the season. I’m not sure if sim teams have feelings, but they are playing like they are upset about their long time GM quitting on them mid-season. On paper this looks like a really good team. They have plenty of fire power up front with Getzlaf and Perry leading the way, but they have been very underwhelming so far. Perry was the heart trophy winner last season but only had eight points through 24 games so far this season. How can he stay that bad? Yes, in typical Vanhuggy fashion this team has scary bad defencemen, but I didn’t see this team missing the playoffs. The team is in need of a shake-up of the lines and some TLC. Hopefully a new GM can come take over in time to right this sinking ship. The super low 6.9% Shooting percentage is bound to improve as the season moves on and with an 81 overall goalie we should see the .914 save percentage increase slightly as well. It looks like this could be a team that the sim just chews up this season. I see Winnipeg in the 7-10 range come the end of the season.

Rangers

Would have guessed that the rags would be the last team in the DHL to get their first win this season? ……. I’m not seeing anyone with their hands up. That’s what I thought. For as long as I can remember Jon Q’s team has been at the top of the Eastern conference standings, but Jon got caught in the cap crunch this offseason and had to move some good players to stay compliant. The new look Rangers had a nightmare start, but have been one of the hottest teams in the league in the last 10 games. Jon has shot back up the standings and now sits fourth in the east. A big part of the turnaround has been the addition of Soderberg from the Ducks. He has had nine points in his first 6 games with the blue shirts. With the addition New York has two good scoring lines again and we are seeing the percentages come back normal. A PDO of 997 seems low for the Rangers, but it is hard to see Pavelec shooting out the lights and posting an above average save percentage. I think we see NYR stay in that 4- 6 range in the East. They just don’t have the depth and goaltending to be a top three team this year.

Alright I am at almost 1800 words. There are some interesting stories on some of the teams I didn’t mention, but it is time for bed. Hopefully you guys enjoy this one.

What is your take? Any teams surprise you to start the season? Do you feel your team has performed up to par so far?

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