Regression Monster/Fairy – Part I: Hoping for the Fairy

By Nick - Philly
Updated: April 1, 2015

Every season in the DHL we see some really hot and cold starting teams. In this article I am going to be looking at the some shot differential and PDO numbers to see if some team’s starts are a sign of what is to come or just lucky/ unlucky starts. Teams that I think have been playing over their head will be getting a visit from the regression monster that is coming to take away all their wins and happiness. Teams that have been underperforming or unlucky will be getting a visit from the regression fairy that will come to take away all the pain and leave them some extra wins under their pillows.

First let’s see what little DHL GM’s will be resting their little heads down at night waiting for the regression fairy. All stats posted in the chart below.

Islanders – Jonny

Jonny’s Islanders have had a pretty slow start. On paper they look like a team that should be top 5 or 6 in the east, but they are currently 7-8-3 and have only won 4 games in their last ten. This start seems to be mostly due to some really garbage goaltending. Jonny’s goalies are currently only stopping 89% of shots against. That is tied with Saif’s devils craptacular duo for 2^nd last in the league. This ridiculously low S% is why Jonny’s team has a low, low PDO of 969. To put how unlucky that is in perspective the lowest PDO in the league last season was Columbus with a 995. If The Islanders continue to dominate the shot clock the way they have their luck is sure to change once the regression fairy comes to visit them.

Anaheim – Stefan

Stefan’s Ducks could really use a visit from the fairy. He overhauled his team in the off-season into what most thought would be a playoff team, but a slow start for the Ducks probably has a few people doubting that now. Anaheim is currently sitting outside a playoff spot with a 7-7-4 record. When looking at the shot clock it seems like Stefan’s team has been pretty solid with 518 shots for and 521 against, but he has been getting below average goaltending and shooting from his team. His PDO of 981 is sure to improve once the regression fairy visits, and that should help him to a playoff spot in the West this season.

Philly – Nick

Philly has been the most dominant team in the league so far this season…. When looking at shot differential. Philly has only been outshot in one game this season and leads the league with 109 more shots than their opponents. Sadly for GM Nick, this has only translated into 8 wins. It seems below average goaltending and shooting % are to blame. Philly is below average in both areas and a 985 PDO is sure to improve as the season wears on. If the regression fairy comes to visit Philly should be a top 4 team in the East this season.

Calgary – Rui

Rui is hoping the regression fairy can make the long trip to Finland before it is too late for his Flames. Rui dumped a truck load of money in UFA this season and so far it has not paid off. His team has only 5 wins and is 2^nd last in the West. Even Tyler’s sad sack Bluejackets have 5 wins and are just behind Calgary in the standings. The good news for Rui is, this cold start seems to be completely PDO percentage fueled. The Flames have been outshooting opponents by 13% so far but have had slightly below average goaltending and below average shooting %. This 987 PDO, combined with a lot of one goal losses, have Calgary in bad need of a fairy visit. The Fairy will be making a visit, but will she have enough fairy dust to boost Rui’s team back to the playoffs?

Edmonton – Pete

It looks like the fairy has already made a trip to Germany to visit Pete, or maybe Pete took some fairy dust home from Vancouver. Either way things have been improving. Pete’s team had a nightmare 1-8 start to the season, but the Oilers are now one of the hottest teams in the league with only one loss in their last 8. When looking at the numbers it seems there is still some fairy dust left to be used for Edmonton. The Oilers have outshot opponents by 15%, but have been really unlucky with a 6.4% shooting %. That is the 2^nd lowest team shooting percentage in the league. Even New Jersey and Columbus have higher shooting percentage. The regression fairy is not done here yet. Once the fairy improves Pete’s 988 PDO to a more sustainable level the Oilers should be sitting in a playoff spot